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Not sure if it’s been quite a decade but it does not matter. I sold down and tried my hardest to be a bear and I had a miserable week. It confirmed all I have always believed.
So grizzlies, when is the second coming? Is this a dead cat bounce or the start of a very robust recovery that I am not enjoying or are there bad times lurking around the corner? Tell me, tell me please. And I need to know when it will turn down and when it will turn up. I need timing as that is all that matters. But if you email me spare me the dogma.
So I spent last week doing this perfect analysis sitting on a pile of cash and not making a cracker. I did my routine cycling through the markets. I rationalised and tried to convince myself that the good times (at least for me) will return. I told myself that I should take time out and so I have seen a dozen movies; I have walked the rubber off a new pair of joggers in a mere few days; I have caught up on lunches and put 8000 music tracks onto my MP3. But if you grizzlies had pinpointed the scenario more precisely I could have gone for a decent holiday.
I am bored. This is just not the same as being in the pit.
I look at the very low volumes in the last few days and rationalise that it is small against recent sell volume and the bears could come back and alienate the bulls in one gnarl. More rationalisation or just sour grapes?
Short? Nah need a trend.
The moves on the SPI have been scary and that gives me comfort that all is not as it seems. Some smart traders out there have made a bundle on ‘day trading’, something I have never done in my life. So I know neither the pleasure nor the pain.
But then I say the pain of not making another truck-load of money is more bearable than giving up hard won gains. I can’t handle the excruciating torment of losing. Have I become a ‘market chicken’?
Maybe I have lost my nerve. I’m off to see my psychiatrist.
Enjoy the ride!
Tom Scollon
Chief Analyst
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