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I hope opening with the chart for the All Ords won’t bring back too many scary memories:
click chart for more detail
A plain vanilla garden variety chart – can’t get much simpler!
The first arrow at early March was the Shanghai shakeout. I can’t even recall what it was all about. The second blip in August has also passed into oblivion for me. And I wonder how long it will take for the third arrow – where we are right now – to pass from memory.
Maybe the extent to which the current blip will survive in memory will depend on the pain or gain of the choices I make in the coming days.
I am compelled to buy at such times – I just can’t resist a bargain. Admittedly, there is not much that is looking like the bargains we had in August. Maybe some will become bargains in a few months. But which stocks? We will just have to wait.
But I can’t – I have to buy now. The risks are less than they were a few weeks ago. If I am to be disciplined about my strategy of buying low and selling high I must buy now. I may not hit the exact low but I will be close. If I am wrong and have to sell, my losses will be lower than they would have been if I had bought some weeks ago.
Back to the simple chart. I like to ask investors – and myself – where on the chart we would like to have bought. Without exception we point to the arrows. Right now we have to make choices. They are always hard at the time.
It has been a tough few months and for many a tough year. Unless you were in the right stocks you will have struggled to break even.
Regardless, it is time to take a break. In fact, the Trading Tutors Newsletter will be taking one until 11 January 2008. Our contributors have earned it!
The Trading Tutors team wishes you a lovely Christmas and a happy and prosperous New Year. We look forward to returning in three weeks time – and to trading success in 2008!
Enjoy the ride
Tom Scollon
Chief Analyst
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