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One might think so as we hear of how they have doubled, tripled over recent years. High prices have certainly been handy in preventing our equities market imploding over recent weeks but one does wonder, will increasing prices cool an already ailing global economy? Well maybe but there are always two sides to the equation – supply and in this case, stocks.
Nickel was once the darling of metals – everyone wanted stainless steel – but we can see how it has languished in the last several months. The now numerous producers might ask when may the heady days return.
click chart for more detail
We may see some short term upward moves in prices but that is all they will be as the price of nickel looks set to trade sideways for some time yet.
Copper on the other hand is full of life:
click chart for more detail
Copper has taken out the old high (horizontal line) in the last months or so and could even head higher. But a pullback is lurking. We cannot be precise as to when it may happen but we know it will and perhaps this is consistent with the deepening slow down in world growth. If copper was to pullback in second half 2009 perhaps that is consistent with expectations of USA housing starts being in a hole then and the global economy reaching a short term low.
It will still be a long time before all this starts to sort itself out. And I say sort itself out as there is a gestation time for all this. Yes the bun needs time in the oven. No matter how much more the Fed lowers interest rates – and they can’t go much lower anyway – it just takes time for us to forget, to trust, for confidence to return. Right now all I can see are belts being tightened.
But one day we will say ‘what slow down’?
Enjoy the ride
Tom Scollon
Chief Analyst
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