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The Oracle of Omaha, Warren Buffet spoke at an annual company talk fest last weekend and declared that the worst was over for the markets.
Now, so far Warren has stuck with me in this last credit crisis and equity market fall out, but it does appear now we will have to go our separate ways. I must say Warren, I thought I heard you reported as saying only a week or so ago that equities are not cheap. That I would agree.
It is not that I have become a perennial grizzly or lacking any ticker at the moment. In fact because I have been out of the market now for some months I am looking for any old excuse to get back in. But look as I do – daily – intra day cycling through the top 300 – I cannot get excited.
Sure there are stocks that have defied gravity and are heading half way to heaven – but I am not on board a single one and knowing that all of you out there are, well it is starting to hurt (my pride) just a little.
I am not sitting around all day waiting for the market to form those magic Elliott set ups but I am prepared to invest the time. But right now there is more analysis than action in my trading.
Well yes I mentioned the magic word – ‘trading’. I would see myself as an active investor – I want to be there for several months at least, so I am looking for those beautiful trends they illustrate in those wonderful door stopper books on technical analysis. You know where they pronounce ‘the trend is your friend’.
But where is the trend? And here I mean the sustained trend – the one that can make me some lazy dollars as I don’t want to take risks.
I can’t see a long sustained move higher where I can kick back and bask in the sun for a couple of years and watch my money tree grow like over the last couple of years. I see a small one petering out. One day I know a new sustained trend will emerge – a real one – and that is the one I want to be on.
Warren please show me the way.
Enjoy the ride
Tom Scollon
Chief Analyst
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