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We are, all of us, traders included, a bunch of curious people. We like to know why.
In addition, we like being in control and knowing ‘why’ gives us a sense of control. Why do you want to know why? How useful are the answers to your trading?
Let’s start with little kids. They are curious. They are discovering a world. They like to know. They question everything. They do not like restraints on their behaviour so they question the validity of the restrictions. They are constantly asking ‘why’. Why do I have to go bed now? You need the rest. Why do I need the rest? If you do not, you will not have any energy tomorrow? Why will I not have any energy? Sleeping restores your energy. Why? Why not?
As you can imagine, it’s exhausting being on the receiving end of the barrage of ‘why’ questions.
Later on in life, when events happen that do not agree with us, we want to know why they happened. Why is he leaving me? Why am I retrenched? Why did you crash the car? Why did the doctor ask for the extra tests? Why was I adopted? Why did my mother die?
Why did the markets start falling? Why did my Superannuation halve in value? Why is the Australian Dollar falling? Why did I buy my house then? Why didn’t I buy a house then? Why did I take that trade? Why did I not take that trade? Why is there a seventy six day cycle in this market? Why am I not as good as David Bowden? Why did I break my rules?
These questions are a quest for knowledge, we want to know the cause so we can:
- Understand and make sense of the seemingly chaotic world around us
- Find a reason to shift the blame from ourselves
- Place the blame on someone else
Why do you want to know? Take a moment to think, or better still, write down all your reasons. Even if you get the answers to your questions, you would follow it up with another why and another.
Does finding the answers to your “Why?” questions help your trading, your bottom line? What if you allowed a little uncertainty and stopped the never ending search for the absolute truth. What if you simply accepted what was happening and found ways of benefitting from it.
Markets have cycles. One of the cycles that is a seventy six day cycle that works very well with the Swiss Franc Market. Would you spend hours, days, weeks, months trying to work out why? Or would you rather use this information and traded it profitably? While it is not the focus of this article to teach you how to use time cycles for profit, it is the focus of this article to point you in the direction of “more profitable” investigations.
- Why is there a seventy six day cycle?
- How can I benefit (or profit) from this seventy six day cycle?
The same applies to the bear market we are in. Which one of these investigations will be more profitable for you?
- Why are we in a bear market?
- How can I benefit (or profit) from what is happening right now.
This brings us to a more powerful question: “How?” How can I benefit? How may I get better? How can I increase my skill levels? How can I avoid losing money? Why questions are usually directed towards the past which none of can change. How questions are usually directed towards the future which all of us can change.
Believe, achieve
Sinan Koray
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