|
Yes I understand that and the first bit of new light I promise I will be shouting from the highest mountain but at the moment I can’t manage a squawk.
You see even the brand new USA president was last week telling us there was unbelievable value in the sharemarket – or words to that effect. Phew. So I guess there must be value there when the President is telling us to buy. And Warren bought heavily into Goldman Sachs and sacrificed a billion or a few in the interest of being positive. He lost not quite his shirt but enough to make him mortal and able to make billion dollar errors of judgement. And we talked only a few weeks ago about how Gerry also blew a billion or so backing his own stock. Now that was a dose of positivity. And then we have seen all the Instos and serious investors buying into heaps of placements and rights issues over the last few months. How much more positive can you be? Pretty much all are under water – some by billions. So ‘billons’ is an easy word to throw around now and we have become used to it in a throwaway style. Yes it is a bit like throwing away money – everybody is doing it - our Instos investing our Super (well not mine but some innocents) and governments are doing it like they are Santa Claus. The UK has now committed more than 20% of GDP equivalent to so called rescue packages – that reads rescue and not reckless. Can any government top that? Maybe an Eastern European one will soon.
I have also listened over the last several weeks with some curiosity, how some high profile nice guy economists (for the major banks) have been talking very glowingly of snippets of positive news that really don’t matter a brass razzoo. They are truly listening to their bosses. But if I want to be ‘blue’, let me be as I don’t want to whisper sweet nothings when I can’t find any worthwhile good news. Don’t try and cheer me up with nothing news.
I would like to get positive but I just have that sense that being positive and listening to President Obama and following the example of governments and numerous investors will be painful and I can’t stand pain. Maybe I am just plain chicken.
I was sort of thinking that if we all got ‘positive’ – I mean every man, woman, child, dog all over the world – would that change things? Sorry I am being negative again. I don’t think anything would change as what is happening is sub-conscious consumer thinking. And that can be insidious, subterranean, sinister and very tough to put your finger on and almost impossible to measure. And even when measured no-one wants to admit to what it says. We consumers know. We just know the economy is not ready to lift off the bottom yet. Because with fear you can’t pretend even though our governments would like us to. We all know deep down in our cotton socks things are still some time away from being hunky dory again.
But the good news is that when things do take off we will see the mother of all booms. Shares will take off into a new trajectory saying good bye to the old scary highs, business will follow and boom, everyone will have jobs again, wages will sky rocket, rorts will abound, excessive executive salaries will make those of old look like piggy bank money, China will save the world. It will be a party never seen before.
True? Yes. On March 26 I am going to take my tongue out of my cheek and make an attempt to make some serious sense of when all this may happen. This will be via a Webinar and you can register your interest on 1300 767 699.
Enjoy the ride
Tom Scollon
Chief Analyst
|