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W.D. Gann says in Tunnel Through the Air that you can predict, days ahead, weeks ahead, months ahead, years ahead, 10, 100, 1000 years ahead. This is indeed possible when it comes to predicting tides, lunar and solar eclipses, sunset and sunrise, new and full moons and planetary positions. In fact all of this information is printed in tables in an Ephemeris. Similarly market moves, weather and wars can be predicted with accuracy as both W. D Gann and David Bowden have demonstrated time and time again.
Yet we can not predict the time a flight leave one city and arrive at another city. Why is that?
Statisticians will tell you that the larger the group you are analysing the easier it is to predict their behaviour. It is hard to predict what an individual will do or how ten or hundred people will behave. On the other hand it is much easier to predict what millions of people will do.
While you may not like the idea human behaviour is predictable. More humans you have together, the more predictable they become.
That is why it is much easier to trade oil, corn, soybeans, S&P500 and Euro currency than trading CRG, Crane Group. Why? Because the number of people trading commodities are much larger in number than those who trade an individual stock in ASX.
This makes predicting behaviour of larger markets a lot easier. Commodities, Indices and Currencies lend themselves to W. D. Gann methodology much better than individual stocks.
Furthermore, commodities have seasonal patterns that relate to farming and seasonal temperature variations, which once again are much more predictable than a company’s earnings or profit downgrades. The demand of masses show predictable patterns and demands of individuals don’t.
It is much easier to work out where Soybeans market will go than to work out if an airline will be on time, early or late. It is much easier to work out where Standard and Poor’s Index of top 500 companies in USA will go than to work out if your dinner date will be early, late or on time. Real Estate booms and busts are much more predictable than working out if your meal at your dinner date will arrive on time, early or late.
It is quite likely to see a Gann Trader excited about cycles in the market and frustrated about delayed flights, meetings or meals! The exciting part is that the predictability of Commodities, Indices and Currencies can put dollars in your pocket and your bank account.
Believe Achieve
Sinan Koray
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