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I am currently travelling in Vietnam – no such thing as North and South – as they leave the past behind and get on with life today. And despite the global financial crisis – now seems oft used as an upper case acronym as ‘GFC’ - you have a sense of a people that are very industrious, great entrepreneurs and of course have a zest for life. This is a country going places.
Vietnam – about the size of Tasmania – has a population of about 85 Million people – imagine stacking that number into Tassie. The gap between poor - and not just the rich – but the middle class is huge. Mind you that is a throwaway for so many parts of the world.
But when you travel here – and there are many other countries in Asia with similar populations – you have to feel optimistic about the future – for the region and for the Australian economy and for that matter for the global economy.
So when I say that the next boom will be the mother of all booms – that is what I mean. Travelling in Asia just reminds me of the latent power within the region. It reaffirms in my mind the validity of the ‘economic super cycle’. I can’t help but be overawed by the potential for demand for our resources as the standard of living in these developing countries escalates and their economies gain traction.
I have been a long time subscriber to the ‘economic super cycle’ – but always have to caution that within these super cycles there are recessions along the way and we are experiencing one such disruption right now.
My belief in the ‘economic super cycle’ does not prompt me to go out and buy the market as we can be smarter and get our timing right.
So the big picture is great but you still need to be smart about it all – so get your education foundation right as that will enhance your returns many fold in the next leg up in the global economy.
Enjoy the ride
Tom Scollon
Chief Analyst
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