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If you follow the bulk of investors then you will find yourself too late into a rally and too late out.
I would suggest that TTN readers are amongst ‘a learned class’ of investors. I am careful with my choice of words as I know there are many that perhaps still sit on the sidelines. They like the idea of training and using software analysis but have not yet taken that leap. All in good time.
That is not to say you cannot succeed without HUBB training, but in my experience specific and concentrated training in any pursuit you are keen to improve on – whether that be sport, work, hobby – can be dramatically enhanced by focussed skill development. Let me assure you there is in no way a theme in my series on ‘The Seven Deadly Sins’ that is promoting course or software as I know each reader will take what action they consider appropriate to their needs as and when required.
So I think generally TTN readers are in a class of their own and have the capacity for independent thought and action. So I am confident that you can take more out of a trend than the bulk of investors and in many cases a big number of Fund Managers. And can identify what is maybe not a trend which is maybe being pursued by many other investors.
I can best illustrate my key points via the chart below:
click to enlarge
The yellow shaded areas are the tops and bottoms and I would suggest that few investors whether they be retail or institutional can pick these exact turning points repeatedly.
The red trend line is the ‘mob’ trend and the blue line is what I would suggest is the portion of the trend that experienced and skilled investors are able to capture.
What I am talking of in the above is a bear trend and therefore I am talking about a ‘short’ trend.
You might say well what about the kick up over the last few weeks. Well I happen to have the view that despite the strength over the last week this is not a convincing uptrend and that there is another leg down.
When you have a strong trend in play then I believe that is the time to be the contrarian and to move away from the ‘mob’ view. Thus even though the mob are following this recent kick up you have to challenge that view and ask do you run with the mob or think independently.
If you want to trade the current volatility then you will also benefit by being the contrarian. Selling as others want to get on board and buying when others are running scared. And we are likely to see many opportunities in what is likely to be a continuing explosive market.
Thinking independently takes some individuality and discipline – and is not something that will come easily. But it will add greatly to your returns.
Enjoy the ride
Tom Scollon
Chief Analyst
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