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Gold is back in the headlines again with India’s purchase of 200 tons of gold being regarded as newsworthy.
Forever the cynic, I always reckon when financial markets hit the headlines it is time to do the opposite. Journalists are always able to find someone to give them an outlandish quote and one this week was that gold would head to US$2000 an oz. Well maybe. Which year, which decade, which millennia? Why not US$5000? Both are equally crazy.
True, gold may be a safe haven for those who have serious doubts about the US’s ability to manage its budget, its deficit and just about any other indicator you can think of in the coming few years. You wonder when it will all hit the fan. ‘Trillion’ was a word we used as kids when we really wanted to be very silly and off the planet. But now it is real. It is an oft used word in US economic parlance.
But let’s see what the charts say as they speak no evil – well not much:
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This simple line chart with Elliott suggests a couple of scenarios. Firstly it points to the possibility that for the time being gold is just about there. That is, there is not huge upside from here for the foreseeable. That is what the ‘grayed’ 5 is saying.
The other scenario is that it could head to about $1120/1180 in the coming months. Some may ask ‘how useful is that’? Well no software or indicator can be any more definitive. It is all about probabilities.
With commodities, I especially like to look at the big picture and for this I use a weekly:
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And this says, yes, we may see US$1200 or US$1300 but it could be a while away and in any case we may well see a decent pullback along the way.
Great for the traders as all that traders want is plenty of movement – either way.
So we have movement - and that is enough ‘shining’ for the months ahead.
Enjoy the ride
Tom Scollon
Chief Analyst
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