|
Firstly welcome back to Trading Tutors Newsletter! We hope it has been a restful break and you are all refreshed for the year ahead. We hope it is healthy and prosperous one for you and your families.
Yes it is at this time we contemplate what might lie ahead in the coming 12 months. In respect to investing this might send our brain into a tail spin just as we arrived at a sense of normality after the break!
So here I am talking of investing and what sort of markets we might see unfurl as the year progresses. But might I add that I think it is also a good time to review our strategies and disciplines and how we might be more effective in our approach.
I made no secret of the fact I stayed out of the market until late last year as I thought we would see another leg down. But what I have noticed in the last few weeks since I have been back is a new freshness and clarity which made me think that when we are constantly deeply immersed in the markets our vision can sometimes blur as much as we may work hard to avoid this.
So today I am contemplating what sort of year we might see in 2010. I am NOT forecasting for readers or for myself as I see little point in doing that as a year is a long time and I am happy just to have a sense of what might lie ahead in next few weeks and maybe months. In the current market I think it is prudent to only look that far ahead.
I say that as I still believe this is a traders market and not one for investing in for the long term. We have experienced a period of ‘irrational exuberance’ to use a Greenspanism (new traders may well ask who was Greenspan?) and at times one could feel a little guilty about taking the easy money!
Technically I see there is still more upside and we could see our market head to 5500 but it could also hit a brick wall. That is the fractious nature of markets - especially now.
There are two thoughts that swirl in my mind. Firstly we will see much volatility – great for traders. Secondly the higher we go the bigger and more premature will be the next bubble burst.
And it is for this reason I cannot press the button on a long term buy.
Enjoy the ride
Tom Scollon
Chief Analyst
|