|
As I search to fathom out the melee of the last couple of weeks I try and contemplate likely scenarios. I say likely as to talk of just possible scenarios is really just sitting on the fence and I am not good at that. Nor can I say I am good at picking short term moves. I say ‘moves’ as I am inclined to think a short term ‘trend’ is almost a contradiction of terms. I do not aspire to pick the short term moves but only to understand them as a foundation to at least the medium term move ahead.
At such times Elliott Wave does not help me in a convincing way – as it also is trying to fathom out what is happening.
But when I contemplate a market such as the DOW - down so savagely last week and this week having two consecutive days of triple digit rises - I ask what sense is in this? Last week it was all doom and gloom and this week it is all sunshine and roses. How can you trade this successfully with anything but sheer luck?
Apart from standing aside with my cash I also await with amusement the next move and ask myself what could this be? My interest is no so much academic as I would not mind to get in and make some easy money - which I realise is not around at the moment. But my thought turns to our local market and where it may head. And I wonder, is this before us?
click to enlarge
I am not going to bet on the market going up or down as it just needs to sort itself out – and I am not going to risk my money to let it do that. So even if it just continued higher – and not slide to 4400 or so – I am happy to be a bystander.
But I will not be watching at center court as I am heading bush into Laos and I will leave the markets for a few days to do as it wants. And maybe when I emerge we will have a clearer idea of the way forward.
Enjoy the ride
Tom Scollon
Chief Analyst
|