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Once a year I like to write about the Aussie dollar although I do not get into the serious technical’s as this is the domain of our specialist currency expert, Matt Barnes. As an aside, each of the columnists selects their own area of specialty so hence you benefit with some really deep knowledge from our writers in specific areas . Imagine having the discipline as does Tim Walker to write exclusively and become a walking encyclopaedia on one stock - STO!
Anyway to the Aussie chart:
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I like raw line charts and what jumps out at me is the movement we have seen in the last few months. But using Elliott it has not necessarily been easy to pick moves as it has taken us down the garden path a few times.
Back in February it teased us with the prospect of a low in the range 78 – 82 cents:
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We then had to change our thinking as it went into an A B C pattern and then flipped up again in April:
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And now in June it has reversed thinking and we see a new bearish move:
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This can frustrate Elliott fans but I take the view such is the vagaries of the markets. I leave such a market until a decent trend develops or I trade both sides just for the sport – but holding only short term positions.
Short term positions I know suit many readers and the Aussie is likely to give many of you lots of fun and money in the coming weeks.
Enjoy the ride
Tom Scollon
Chief Analyst
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