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Yes I know it is cliché to say such. But as I watched the Kevin Rudd spill – an extraordinary fall from grace in a very short period from giddy popularity heights. Also, Julia Gillard warming up on the outer not to replace Barry Hall at full forward for Julia’s favourite AFL side, but rather to replace her loyal leader – I thought how things can change. If you think hard enough about such you realise how there are so many similes with investing. The only certainty – other than death and taxes – is uncertainty.
It is of some coincidence that we saw surprises in investing over this last week. Again it occurred to me – we just don’t know what is around the corner.
Let’s look at some examples of surprise. I start with Sundance and the chart after the full board of that company was tragically and sadly killed in an African air crash. I hope I am not offending anyone by making mention of this sad event. But I would like to make mention of what might be when the shares are relisted – just as the media has in this last week. Let’s look at the chart:
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The first thing we note in this simple line chart is that the stock has also had a massive fall from grace and really has been doing it tough for over a year. For the majority of investors, how the stock price reacts once it starts trading again – is all a bit academic.
Another surprise was the Elders downgrade:
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Investors bailed out en masse.
If we go back to the day before the negative announcement already investors had been gradually exiting in an orderly manner for several months:
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So the last three days were just the final desertion as those ‘in the know’ had given up on the company some time ago!
Telstra got a bonanza last week with their involvement in the National Broadband announcement but prior to this week already price band volume were climbing:
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Some were in the know?
But go back before the start of this rally. Those Instos that were bailing out have been buying in again over the last few weeks:
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But maybe Telstra just couldn’t get any worse?
That was the week that was.
Start this coming week with an expectation of a surprise and you won’t be disappointed!
Enjoy the ride
Tom Scollon
Chief Analyst
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