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I am here talking of the Mother of all indices – none other than the DOW. So where is it going?
Away to the charts:
click to enlarge
This is my default 90 day Elliott chart and it says there is a little more upside for the DOW – near term that is. But further out?
Well we go to my 90 week – a much bigger picture but not so far out that it cannot be of value:
click to enlarge
It suggests a deeper pullback in the coming months.Maybe the US debt blip we saw on Monday could be the beginning of that slide. Maybe.
Normally we would see a seasonal low in April/May but I don’t think the above easing is it. We also see an easing September/October. Perhaps this could be the timing of the above retreat.
Commentators are calling the market higher. Sometimes just to hear a sound in the background I resort when travelling to turning on the TV and listening to a Pay TV Finance Channel and so I hear the experts. The same squawk when I last turned it on.
Putting aside my skepticism about commentators I am not hearing or seeing much about the fundamentals. The fundamentals should give us some sense of how appropriate the current market level pricing is to the current and future ‘fair’ value. But nobody is telling me that.
If you just got back from Mars and were to look at the weekly chart above you could be forgiven for thinking we have been in a bull market since March 2009 – the last two years.
I see pundits but where are the bulls?
Enjoy the ride
Tom Scollon
Chief Analyst |