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As I write – Wednesday evening – I see the Australian market is down almost another 1% on top of a similar fall yesterday. So I go to a high profile search engines finance page and get:
Banks drag down market - ABC
The local share market extended yesterday's losses, with banking shares doing the bulk of the damage today.The All Ordinaries Index fell 41 points to 4,814 and the ASX 200 ended the day down almost ...
- FMG loses fight for access to rail line - ABC
- Australia shares wilt on banks' slower growth outlooks - Reuters Australia
- Last ACT Angus and Robertson store to close - ABC
- CCA profit growth to halve, shares fall - AAP
- High dollar flattens Coke profits - ABC
- Westpac H1 profit up 38% to $3.96bn - AAP
- Australia shares end down 0.9% - Reuters Australia
- Coal price to boost Macarthur FY profit - AAP
- Virgin pins hopes on a stylish rebrand - AAP
So I follow the trail like a good detective and find this:
| Symbol |
% Close |
% Week |
| XAO |
-0.84% |
-1.74% |
| XDJ |
-0.70% |
-2.29% |
| XEJ |
-0.92% |
-5.41% |
| XFJ |
-1.55% |
-2.51% |
| XHJ |
-0.72% |
-2.68% |
| XMJ |
-0.74% |
-3.70% |
| XNJ |
-0.43% |
-2.13% |
| XPJ |
-0.44% |
-1.47% |
| XSJ |
-0.30% |
-1.31% |
| XSO |
-0.54% |
-4.34% |
| XTJ |
1.03% |
2.70% |
| XUJ |
0.58% |
0.59% |
Energy is down 5.5% for the week, Health down almost 3%, Materials almost 4%, Small Ordinaries over 4% - and Banks only 2.5%.
I also heard on the news that ‘the Australian maker was lower after some initial rises following news about the killing of Bin Laden but alter fell back as the posse fallout from his death was reassessed.’.
Yesterday (four day weekend here in Vietnam) I saw the heading that the market was down because of the strong dollar so I have a look at the dollar and see:
click to enlarge
So if the dollar is down shouldn’t the market go back up again? So will the market rise as the dollar retreats and will it fall when the dollar gets to $1.10?
And a goodly portion of 12 million Australian adults listen to this sort of stuff on the news every day. If you were a licensed financial adviser as opposed to an unlicensed media writer you would be censured.
When are we going to get some decent media commentary? That’s why the charts tell it all in a cool collected manner.
Could it be that our local market was just a tad over bought and when we take a look at Bollinger we could soon be a bit oversold?
click to enlarge
Just more of the same. More range trading with a downward bias in the medium term:
click to enlarge
Good for the traders but be careful buying ‘to have and to hold’
Enjoy the ride
Tom Scollon
Chief Analyst |