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Apple has had a strong upward trend for the last three years, at one point growing by more than 500% from a low of around $80 in late 2008:
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Not even the death of Steve Jobs has halted the rise. But can it keep going forever?
The answer to this question is always ‘No’, and this applies to any stock. All stocks pause, pullback or even nose-dive after a long sustained move up.
So what is the likely next move for AAPL?
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The very short-term Elliott Wave chart above suggests perhaps a small rally and then a new low. A retreat back to $350 would be minor in the overall move up and would really only be in keeping with the current general softness of global markets.
A 30-month Elliott indicates a likely pullback to around $280 - $300 in the second half of 2012:
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Extending out to a 300-month Elliott points to the prospect of a pullback to $240, maybe 2-4 years out. This pullback is a healthy possibility, as it is about a 50% retreat from low to high:
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Of course this is too far out to be of any value to us in the short-term or in fact even staying safe in the near-term.
Technically speaking, AAPL is expensive at the moment. If one had a long-term interest in the stock, patience is the key as we will see better buying in the year or so ahead.
Enjoy the ride
Tom Scollon
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