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Many Australian retirees who are relying on banks shares are feeling insecure about the next two to three years. And when I look at the big four banks I share their concern. I don’t want to be alarmist, but…
Let’s start with the sector that includes the banks – the XFJ:
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The weekly XFJ suggests the possibility of the sector slipping back to the lows of March, 2009 and this slide could unfold over the next several months. This would be tantamount to the sector having gone nowhere in three years.
Analyses of the individual banks reveal a number of patterns.
The CBA may hold at the mid-2009 level of around $35:
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But the NAB could retreat to around to $16:
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At first glance the ANZ and WBC appear to be safer:
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But I wouldn’t ‘bank’ on it. They could range-trade down to 2009 levels or a new downward pattern could be merely delayed.
I am not suggesting you go out and ‘panic-sell’ but this may be a good time to review your positions. The New Year is approaching and this is when many people consider plans and resolutions for the year ahead. Don’t forget to include your portfolio in this review.
Enjoy the ride
Tom Scollon
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