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The big picture is the mother of all indices - the DOW and to a lesser extent the S&P.
DOW first:
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The DOW has had a scary run up – but could keep heading higher – perhaps somehow flirting with the giddy heights of 2007! But note we can expect a retracement at some point in the coming weeks down to about the 12,000 level.
The S&P:
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This shows a similar picture but as this is a daily chart – as opposed to the DOW which is a weekly – I believe we will see the S&P ease first.
To our own market:
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This is still a traders market – we are just range trading.
It is interesting that our economy, which is one of the most secure in the world – good luck more than good planning as after all we are ‘the lucky country’. It’s all about natural reserves. But we are well off our 2007 highs compared to the DOW above!
I will not show each sector of our market as I have over the last two weeks – but suffice to say that little has changed and all sectors are doing as we expect. At the moment predictable.
It is worth however briefly revisiting Telecommunications (Telstra):
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I merely wish to reiterate my point about the oscillator. When it goes well below the index line – by >10% it means there has been heavy profit taking. In other words large buyers are continuing to bail. And that is why it is tough to energize sufficiently to make an attempt at the next wave five. It may but it will struggle.
Now we will watch in the weeks ahead the other sectors’ oscillators to see if they can hold.
Enjoy the ride
Tom Scollon |