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We are nearing a high – and maybe it is time to think about reviewing your positions. All of this depends on when you bought, your view of the weeks and months ahead and many other factors.
I am not saying the market is going to fall out of the sky but I am not going to rule out a decent pullback. I am going to wait and see and then form a view as I have a little time. But I will aim to do this ahead of time and not after the event.
So first to the chart – my trusty 90-day Elliott line with oscillator:
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Elliott says maybe another 100 points up – it could be more – or less. The oscillator suggests that the current market is strong so we will watch for an easing in the oscillator.
My next perspective is a 210 Elliott – a bigger picture:
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That tells me an easing, at the very minimum, will appear in the coming weeks – but that is not to say the markets may not move another 100 points before the easing.
My routine is always to look then at the weekly and this is what I see:
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I AM NOT SAYING THIS IS WHAT WILL HAPPEN!
This is the Elliott count - but I never dismiss even such extreme outlooks out of hand and so I assign some possibility that it could happen, albeit a low probability at this stage. It is enough for me to say ‘clean up your positions’ and make decisions on the merits of each one.
The 30 week Elliott is much more benign:
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That is you have some time to sort out your portfolio but the rally is going to conclude soon.
I have always had the view when markets reach the end of a run I never assume what will happen next. Sitting on the fence? No, just coal face experience.
Enjoy the ride
Tom Scollon |