|
Does anybody out there have a clue about what is going on?
Last week as I was writing, markets were going gangbusters and I had to step in and caution about a retreat and sure it came sooner than later and all the optimism of last week turned sour. They blamed it on elections in Europe and the Greek buccaneers wanting to tear up the EU bail out deal. Was that really what caused the easing of the last few days? Nope. Markets are just at a midterm high.
Let’s look at some charts – this week the DOW:
click to enlarge
So markets went up and went down. Some people lost money some made money. A trader’s dream.
Elliott says the markets are at a midterm high :
click to enlarge
They may go higher but the upside is limited.
Warrens says he is a buyer. Sure he is talking up his own book and his ‘accumulation’ strategy necessitates he must constantly be a buyer. I don’t have time to check on his exploits but when anyone says they are a buyer I wait for the last puff at the top.
That aside, in effect markets have gone no-where in the last three months – just treading water:
click to enlarge
Analysts say that equities are cheap. I think US equities are scarily high:
click to enlarge
Back to almost 2007 highs and we are at risk of a double dip recession. I am not sure what these analysts mean.
Anyway I look hard in ProfitSource for a trend and the only one I can find is medium term down:
click to enlarge
Not a big retreat. So I look for confirmation from the sister index – the S&P:
click to enlarge
And yes I get confirmation – and with an oscillator to boot.
A trader’s paradise.
Enjoy the ride
Tom Scollon
|