Successful trading is part science and part art. If you have found a mechanical trading system that works and you are really disciplined, you can simply apply the rules and let the mathematics work. However, if you are like most of us, you will get greedy, get scared, change your mind, decide to tweak the system, etc. In addition, the market will go against even the best of trading systems. This is where most of us get into trouble. When one recognizes that a trade is not working, even following our system, we will want to repair it.

The “art” portion of trading comes in when a trade goes bad, or we want to adjust the trade for some reason – we need to “fix” it. Fixing a trade is not necessarily a straightforward process – often one must think in an unconventional manner to find a workable solution to the problem. We must be flexible in our approach to problem solving, as we already have several positions in place, and we want to keep those that will help us, while eliminating those positions that will hurt us. After all, making an unnecessary trade not only costs us commissions, but will also cost us in the bid/ask spread (the difference between what the broker will sell us an option for and what they will pay us to buy the same option).

Let’s look at adjusting a Bull Call Spread (buying a lower-strike Call and selling a higher-strike Call, both with the same expiration date) when we have suddenly turned bearish on the stock. Our sudden change of belief in the stock can come about for any number of reasons, but generally is a result of adverse news on the firm or sector, a belief that the market as a whole has changed character, or the stock price action has suddenly turned around. In any case, if we no longer have faith in our Bull Call Spread, we will want to do something before we lose our investment.

We have several choices at this point, the easiest being to simply unwind our trade. Well, actually the easiest is to simply do nothing, praying that the stock will indeed come back. If the stock doesn’t come back, we will ultimately end up taking our maximum loss. However, let’s pretend that we are smarter than that and, at least in this case, are not in total denial on the stock’s movement. To unwind the trade, we buy back the options that we sold (the higher-strike Call) and sell the options that we bought to enter the trade (the lower-strike Call). This should result in a credit, offsetting at least partially, the debit we incurred upon entering the trade.

How much of a net loss we have after unwinding the trade will depend on a number of factors, including how much and which way the underlying stock has moved, how long we were in the trade, how much time is left in the trade, the increase or decrease in volatility of the options, etc.

In addition, there is the loss on the bid/ask spread in the options that will be absorbed in the transaction. The difference between what the floor will sell an option at and what they will buy it back at can be substantial. It will be at least 10 or 15 cents per share ($10 – $15 per contract) and can be $1 or more per share ($100+ per contract) on very volatile stocks. As you will be first buying and then selling the lower-strike Call and selling and then buying back the higher-strike Call, you will find that the slippage in the transactions (entering and then exiting the option) can be substantial. If you multiply this number by two (for the two legs in the spread) and then multiply again times the number of the spreads you purchased, you can be getting into substantial money. Thus, you will generally be guaranteed a loss on the transaction if you simply unwind it, except in very extraordinary circumstances.

Is there something we can do if we believe that the stock has changed direction such that we do not lose any money, and in fact can salvage a profit? Of course – we are using options!

If our belief is that the stock will continue downwards, or at least not turn up again, we can morph the Bull Call Spread into a Bear Call Spread. We can accomplish this feat by entering a very wide Bear Call Spread, selling the original long call that we purchased to enter the position and buying a call with a strike higher than our original short position. The resulting net position will consist of a short call from the original trade at a given strike and a long call from the new trade at a higher strike. The new spread will be a credit. The net position of the original Bull Call Spread and the adjusting Bear Call Spread will usually result in a credit (depending on the particulars of the individual options at the time of the two trades). If the stock then does not climb back above the short Call, you will end up with a profit on the combined trades.

As an example, look at 3M Company (MMM) as of March 17, 2003. The stock was basing around $125 since the previous December after falling from $130. By March 17, the stock had been climbing for three days in a row, and was up over $8 in that time, closing at $129.50. If we then decided that it was time for the stock to step up to its next level, we might choose to put on a Bull Call Spread. Purchasing (long) a July 125 Call and selling (short) a July 135 Call for a net debit of $5.80 on March 18 would give us a trade with a 72% maximum profit if the stock closed above $135 on the third Friday of July, and a breakeven of $130.80 (125 + 5.80 = 130.80). The basic risk curve is shown in Figure 1, below. As the stock rises above $130.80 (the blue line), the trade becomes profitable, reaching its maximum profitability at a stock price of $135.

Figure 1: Bull Call Spread on MMM, 3/18/03.
Net debit of $5.80, giving a 72% return in 122 days.




click chart for more detail

After entering the trade, MMM continued on its up-move for the next three weeks, reaching a high of $136.75 on April 7, just the movement we had expected. However, that was MMM’s zenith, as it then drifted downwards over the next week, until, on April 16, 2003, it suddenly fell out of bed. MMM lost $4.64 on that Wednesday, dropping to $129. If, at this point, we changed our mind about the bullish nature of this stock and decided that it would not top out above $130.80 (the breakeven of the Bull Call Spread), we would want to make some adjustment to our bullish trade.

If we were to simply exit the trade, we could sell our long Call, the July 125 Call, for $8.60, and we could buy back our short July 135 Call for $3.60. This would result in a net $5.00 credit to exit the trade, or an eighty-cent loss (-5.80 + 5.00 = -0.80) on the overall trade – entry and exit.

If we decided that we did not want to take the loss, we believed that MMM would continue its downward movement, we could convert from a Bull Call Spread to a Bear Call Spread. To do this conversion, we would simply sell the July 125 Call that we are presently long, and, to protect our remaining short Call, would purchase a Call with a strike above the 135 of our short position, a July 145 Call, for example. If we were to sell the 125 Call (at $8.60) and purchase the 145 Call (at $1.00), we would have a net $7.60 credit (8.60 – 1.00 = 7.60) from our adjustment trade. Combining this credit with the $5.80 debit from the original Bull Call Spread, gives our net position (long the July 145 Call and short the July 135 Call) a $1.80 credit.

The breakeven on the resulting Bear Call Spread (long the July 145 Call and short the July 135 Call) would be $136.80 (135.00 + 1.80 = 136.80). The maximum return on the net trade is the $1.80 net credit, or 22% (1.80 / [145 – 135 – 1.80] = 0.22) shown in Figure #2, below.

Figure 2: MMM Bear Call Spread after adjusting the earlier Bull Call Spread(from Fig.1).
The net trade has a breakeven of $136.80 and a maximum profit of 22%.
This is down from the 72% profit of the original Bull Call Spread, but the trade is profitable as the stock drops in price.




click chart for more detail

How did our revised trade fare? MMM continued to fall in price, dropping below $121 in early May, where it turned again and started back up. On July 18, 2003, expiration Friday, MMM closed at $130.18, well within the profit zone of our revised trade, and an actual loss on our original Bull Call Spread. The original trade would have lost only $0.62, or 11%, but it was still a loss. By adjusting our trade, we ended up with our full 22% return, quite a turn-around.

Of course, the very next day, the Monday after expiration, MMM was up $6.17 to $136.35! A little luck never hurts either.

One of the keys to successful trading is to be flexible in your trades, especially when the character of your underlying stock changes. Do not look at any particular trade as the end of the position. There is generally a way to adjust your trade to take advantage of the character change in the underlying, providing you catch the change with enough time still left in the trade.

Andrew Neyens