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Is it time to dump them?
Let’s look at a few charts:
Copper:
The big picture – monthly - the most widely used of all base metals – is still highly priced in relative terms – and you could question is this sustainable:
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On a short term basis there is still further softness ahead:
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Nickel is another litmus test for global growth:
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And again softness – but it is not going to collapse in a heap – well not on current indications. Make no assumptions though.
Other metals are following a similar pattern. So let’s branch out and look at other ‘health’ indicators – oil and gold and finally the Aussie dollar.
Gold has been rallying with recent Ukraine tensions:
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But is looking weak medium term:
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Back to five year lows! So maybe a good time to spring clean gold stocks if you haven’t already. But the decline is 70% complete. Too late?
Oil also has risen with recent tensions:
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But is otherwise benign with some longer term range trading with an upward bias:
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And the Aussie is easing in sympathy with metals:
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What is more surprising is that resources have held up so well. But we are at something of a cross road and I sense some change afoot that we cannot see yet on the charts.
Enjoy the ride
Tom Scollon
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