Aaron
Lynch
 
Those of you who have followed my Trading Tutors articles in 2003 will have noticed a few articles from me on RIO. It's only early 2004 and RIO is again on the analysis horizon. Most would know the resource sector has been a strong performer in the bull move since November last year and to review this period we see a strong run of profitable ABC trades.
All the three trades highlighted in the chart below were profitable. Using standard entry and exit techniques from the Starter Pack rules a total profit of $1.83 was achievable across these three trades. The time frame was just over one month from early December to early January.


click chart for more detail

Taking the exit in the third trade proved timely as a major reversal followed on the 7th Jan. This was a key area of resistance when focusing on the bigger picture. Using the Gann retracement tool on the bear range of 2002 we see the market pulled up on the 75% level. When ABC trading on a shorter time frame, it is important to monitor the bigger picture for potential turning points in the market that can support a decision to stay in a trade or take a safe exit.


click chart for more detail

To analyse in price alone can certainly give a successful perspective. However, the addition of time studies adds another perspective to our analysis. Most would be familiar that we can see price reaction at certain levels. The 50% level being the “danger zone” that Gann talked so much about. It is important to realise though that not only can price react at these levels but so can our measurements in time.

In the chart below I have measured the run from 21st November to the 6th January (note that this time frame is calendar days not trading days). This time frame was 46 days, 50% of that time frame is 23 days. This is marked at point 1, the market was retracing and at this time frame made a strong reversal when it found the eventual high at point 2, 23 days later or a 100% point in time.

Seeing that this time frame has some significance, looking out another 23 days in time we see point 3. RIO price action performed a 2 day reversal and then continued to move lower through that point 3, suggesting some potential weakness. You should treat percentages in time the same way you would when analysing price. The basic premise is the same. If the market can hold above or below these points then support or resistance in time is in play in the same way it would be with price.


click chart for more detail

Point 4 is marked on the chart another 23 days later (this tool is available in the Video Series software) allowing quick and easy evaluation of time cycles in the market. If the bearish move continues on RIO then we may be looking at a completion of the short term cycle later this month on around the 21st. I would suggest that other analysis tools should be used in taking any trade around that time and time frame analysis should not be used as a stand alone tool.

Good Trading

Aaron Lynch