Tom Scollon
Chief Editor

Meeting that ‘ex’ again, revisiting that restaurant that gave you food poisoning and so many other experiences in life can impact greatly on how we ‘feel’ about life’s aspects. Good and bad experiences are remnant on our emotional sub conscience hard drive – rarely does it get lost like that critical document you can’t find on your computer.

Soon we are about to revisit the past. As at Friday the All Ords stood at 3416.

In late June 2001 the All Ords closed at a weekly high of 3425 (I prefer to look at weekly chart for the big picture and to look at ‘close’ data as opposed to intra day highs). In mid February 2002 a close of 3420 was reached and in early March the market double topped at 3428 – close enough for me!

Heh! We are only a few points away from those old giddy heights. For those of you who can remember, will the stomach churn? The market progressively fell to a low of 2666 on March 13 2003 – the birthday of a certain person – and closed that day at 2673. Remember the Gulf War (No Two!)

Last week I did some analysis paralysis on the highs of 3425 and 3428 and I cannot find anything sinister about these similar historical numbers. Some strict technical analysts may disagree with me on this. When these numbers were last hit there was great rigour in the markets although when the market softened clear signals were given that a fall was on its way.

This market also shows great rigour as in the past but the greatest single difference is that this time around there is synchronised global growth – here he goes having a bob each way again – is he technical analysts or fundamental analyst?

The strong current global growth does not mean we rest on our laurels and turn our back on the markets. There is always the “X” factor. It should not keep you awake at night but merely encourage you to be vigilant.

How the market approaches the summit remains to be seen. I suspect that it will test the approaches to the summit just as a mountaineer might acclimatise before the final assault – rather than just launch a mindless tirade at the top.

If the market is contemplative before the final attempt there is more chance that it will sustain a move through 3425 and continue on its merry way beyond the last peak.

Timing is always a more difficult element. Sure it will go beyond 3428, we all know that, but when? That matter does not over-occupy me as I believe it will be in coming weeks – that is good enough for me. Sure it could be this week but what’s the hurry?

Tom Scollon
Editor