Tom Scollon

As I look through the charts I see many companies still doing it tough and one in particular is Worley Parsons:


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It was a favorite of mine as I discovered the sweet taste of leveraged trading through CFDs many years ago.  WOR gave me many happy days as I closed off my books at 4:15pm after a day’s trading in the halcyon days of 2006/7 in particular.  The stock price always had plenty of movement for CFD traders.

I know the company quite well in other ways – albeit from a distance.  With a Very good board I often wondered what such a company do when its world is changing and its share price into a chronic decline.  It has been on the slippery slope for ten years.  I am sure the Board has known they should re-think strategy but clearly the change had been too meek.  Shareholders are obviously not confident much is changing so they just bail out of the stock.

WOR is a global company building gas and oil infrastructure, with 35,000 employees worldwide.  If we look at light crude oil price we see a similar price pattern to that for WOR:


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The major difference being that oil recovered somewhat better from the post GFC fall out.  – well for a few years. 

As you can imagine with a global economy that is showing little strong trend there is little investment in oil and gas so WOR could be stuck with a stagnating business and share price for some time yet.

For how long?  We could look at Elliott for some clues:

The weekly chart says the rout could be nearing an end:


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The monthly says otherwise:


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The share price could recover but another leg down could ultimately happen – albeit 7 or 8 years out.

This could mean net growth for almost 20 years for shareholders of this once megastar of the market.            

 

Enjoy the ride

Tom Scollon