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The Australian
dollar is typically measured and reported most widely against the US
dollar. Recent headings have pointed to
the rise in the Aussie. And suggestions the upward trend might continue.
Let’s look at the ADLR:USDLR :
Click to Enlarge
Sure the daily highlights a steady and solid rise since the beginning of the year. But take a look at the weekly and monthly:
Click to Enlarge
Click to Enlarge
It is a long way off its high of six year ago and is chugging along the sea bed. The monthly suggests a trend lower in time to a not very pretty 60ish level.
Unusually the Aussie and Euro show a contrasting outlook:
Click to Enlarge
Click to Enlarge
The Aussie looks good over the next couple of years. Not so much because of the strength of the Aussie but rather that as economic cracks in the EU are looking very likely, the euro will fall rather than the Aussie climb higher.
As more Aussies head off to Europe than any other tourist bloc this is good news. And of course the exporters will like the lower dollar against the green back.
A rare quinella.
Enjoy the ride
Tom Scollon
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