Aaron Lynch
Aaron Lynch
After a few weeks away from the market on my recent vacation, the level of enthusiasm for the markets is at an all time high. Getting away for a small period of time can provide some new perspective especially if you had reached the stage you can’t see the woods from the trees. However, I will leave the psychology lesson to Sinan Koray - one of our Trading Tutors.

Since my last contribution there has been a lot to say about the markets. The local index pushed through to all-time new highs, the Dow Jones has seen nearly 500 points taken away and trade below the 10,000 point level. Trending markets are the key to directional trading and the recent moves should not be too concerning to a trader as the most important thing is that there is movement regardless of direction.

The recent trip to the United States cemented my view as to the scope of this market; it may seem a little terrifying to the brand new trader. To the trader who is comfortable with their plan, some may say their eyes just “light up” with the vast opportunity.

Looking at some recent stock action in the US, one stood out as a classic ABC trade and ‘price set up’ based on studying the work of David and Gann. Amazon.com or AMZN, trades on the NASDAQ and is one that I remember from the days of the tech boom - an online book shop that planned to change the way people purchased books. The chart below shows the price action for Amazon.com over the last 10 months from the October high in 2003. Circled in orange are the major swing highs and in light blue the swing lows. Clearly, the trend in early 2004 is down, with lower swing tops and lower swing bottoms.



click chart for more detail

The trend changed from down to up when the higher swing top and higher swing bottom were confirmed in June 2004. The May 2004 low was a minor double bottom and the price action stormed out from $40 to $52 in 11 trading days, an excellent move in anybody’s language. It is hard to imagine any Australian shares moving $12 in such a short period. Again this is a reflection of the scope of the US stock market. If this new base of support was going to be confirmed, a small retracement followed by a strong push should have followed the June high. When measuring the strength of a potential move the milestones tool is an important indicator. The chart below measures the May to June range and projects the milestones forward. Amazon failed at the 50% milestone a sign that the sentiment for this stock was not as strong as it may have seemed. A strong reversal and a breaking of the March 2004 lows followed.


click chart for more detail

A great ABC short trade was signalled in this move and is shown in the chart below, with a potential profit of $5.40 or greater had you followed the ABC rules.


click chart for more detail

Remembering swing charts and knowledge of set ups like the 50% rule go a long way to trading well in all the “jungles” out there.

Good Trading

Aaron Lynch