Yes.
Not because anyone in particular is misbehaving but rather the markets have had an extraordinary run.
Take a look at the three key indices:
DOW:
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S&P:
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Nasdaq:
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You can see that all three indices have had an exceptional run.
As I see it there have been two major strong trends:
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From 2009 to now and a secondary subset one from the beginning of 2016. This latter one is a part of the bigger run since 2009.
The correction that I show in the first chart is a small one - but can take prices back a year. Of course we know that this is a prognosis of ‘best fit’ and as the retreat develops we could see the projection change.
But I always remind myself that when markets fall - especially after a long run - we should not be too strong minded about where they might settle. The reason I caution this is that the USA markets are due for a much bigger retreat than the minor one projected.
But no matter what chart I look at and no matter how I tweak such elements as the number of data points, I cannot see a major pullback to even 30% of the move since 2009.
This always makes me a little uneasy as when it does happen it can be with vengeance. I do not second guess the markets as I am strictly essentially driven. But I just apply a little sense of caution
Enjoy the ride
Tom Scollon
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