The Aussie that is.
Why?
Depends on whether you are forward covering/hedging imports or exports, planning your overseas jaunt or already hold US dollars or one of many other reasons
The chart first:
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The daily suggests a possible retreat having had a great run from 74 cents. Traders feel this way after a good run - disbelief that they can take more profits
The greyed wave ‘3’ is not yet complete I note. I constantly remind myself when I see this, that wave three is not yet complete. And that there are three wave threes - as there are for other waves - so the Aussie could continue higher.
To the weekly:
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This also says that there could be a decent retreat to 75 cents - but that could be months away.
As the bigger picture is a long trend to 85 cents and this could ensue over the next two years.
My bet is that it will head higher before we will see a retreat back to 75 cents.
Always good to have a look at an even bigger picture:
Click to Enlarge
And yes the soothsayer is right. But I think we will see a fair bit of movement up and down before 2020.
Always interesting. I follow both us dollar and the euro as both offer great plays for short medium and long term moves.
Enjoy the ride
Tom Scollon
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