Tom Scollon

You party. It is late at night. You had a few drinks. The club is crowded. The last thing on your mind is the EXIT doors.

Yes you continue to party hard. You buy buy buy.

Take a look at the DOW:

 


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GFC is long gone. In fact some of you have even forgotten what GFC stands for. Money has been pouring into the markets over the eight years and you have made a ton of money. Will markets keep going higher forever? Are you thinking of an exit strategy? Have you looked for the EXIT signs?

OBV tells me probably not. Its human nature to enjoy the good times. To think of leaving the party might suggest you are a wet blanket.

I can see some little ill-ease when I look at the VIX daily - the fear index:



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We can see a blip last week spiked by the the bravado banter between North Korea over possible nuclear warhead strikes but on a weekly chart we see there are periodical ups and downs:


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In fact technically the VIX says you could become even more complacent in the months ahead.

I also look inside the action of oil and gold - both defensive plays:

Oil:


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No panic here.

Gold:


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You are not yet taking your money out of stocks and moving it to higher safer ground such as gold or oil.

One thing we know when markets are reaching a major peak - in the case of the DOW a major all time high - that they can become hyper sensitive. A little jumpy. Markets can spin on a dime.

But I think maybe take a look out for the location of the red EXIT light - at least - then dance the night away.

Enjoy the ride

Tom Scollon