|
Most long term pundits would have us believe we are well off a bull run. And when you look at the monthly chart below for the Dow Jones Industrial Cash, you can understand what they are saying.
click chart for more detail
I have used a 21 month moving average and you will note that last month, the price line crossed over the MA for the first time and it now remains for it to be seen whether this can hold as in the last two attempts it did not.
In the next chart I have used a 30 day moving average:
click chart for more detail
You will note the index line has not yet crossed over. Why 30 day MA? I am not one for academic debate but I do observe that there are many experts that use a much longer MA - some 80 periods!!
I am inclined to the view that it needs to cross over the 30 day at least. After that the next major achievement needs to be a close at 11,500 and then the sky is the limit. The more critical issue is when - that is a tough one. Many would attempt to postulate on timing but I do not think it matters. Focus on where the markets are going, employ good risk management and …
Enjoy the ride.
Tom Scollon
Editor
|