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Always good to take a peek at the big picture. But I am never sure how to make money from it in the short to medium term, nevertheless I always think it is a good thing to do.
Colm asks for a review of the SPI saying ‘could you please give an SPI lover your long term reading of the Yearly Chart and then bring us in to a closer Monthly View.’
Colm I am flattered that you would ask an Elliott technician to undertake this review as I always thought it was the realm of the Gann enthusiasts. But I am happy to take up the challenge.
This is an excellent question Colm, but I only have 25 years of data for the AAI-Spotv and unfortunately it is not quite enough to do a yearly analysis so sorry to say we need to go straight to the Monthly view:
Chart 1
click chart for more detail
I could write a book on this chart alone but some salient points:
- You may note the wave four is ‘grayed out’ – this means it is not yet complete
- I expect our market to head lower to about the March low
- It is always interesting to look at a line chart and the steepness and range of market moves – a simple view can tell you when a market is overbought
- We can see a new high in sight – lets say we take the mid point of 8000 for the wave five - by say 2015 – this is an upside of 45% - but with dips along the way!
- ProfitSource or Elliott cannot be clairvoyant so future data along the path can change the projection but I am happy with this as a big picture for the moment.
The projection is consistent with the ‘super economic cycle’. It is consistent with projections of the ‘fundamental’ analysts who are saying we still have to work through this current uncertainty but that the second half will bring a brighter outlook – or a less murky outlook – depending on whether you are a half glass full or empty person.
Enjoy the ride
Tom Scollon
Chief Analyst
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