Noel Campbell
Noel Campbell

How far can the Aussie market go? I was in two minds what to write about this week but have decided to go with a topic that will be a bonus for all readers. To be fair to the readers who attended the Gann Mastery Seminars, we were watching closely the top on 12/13 October, however if the market took out those tops we were next looking to dates in November.

Time by Degrees is a tool and term cornered by David Bowden. David makes no secret that Time by Degrees was his favourite tool. It takes only limited intelligence to guess why it was his favourite. It was his most profitable technique!

Chart 1 shows the recent market action on the SPI200 ( AAI-SpotV ), which is the stock index futures contract, related to the ASX200 stock average. A note for all budding futures traders in Australia (and abroad), this is an excellent contract to track and trade. W.D. Gann would be smiling from beyond the grave at how well this market proves his rules.


Chart 1

click chart for more detail

David Bowden said, many times before in his teachings that ‘Hindsight will become your foresight, if used often enough.' This is a message that I personally feel responsible for ensuring lives on in the mind of anyone new to Gann analysis, which David near perfected. This expression of David's holds a number of meanings, however one emphasis is to accept that you may pick up on a cycle part the way through. However, the benefit of picking up on a cycle half way through is, that you have the rest of the cycle working just as it did in the first half. David states, that once you have picked up on the cycle, even if half way through, you are now trading with a Road Map.

A detail discussion on the Gann Emblem is beyond the scope of this article and is a topic that I have touched on in the past. A cycle, no matter how big or small, can be divided into 360 degrees or one full revolution of a circle. Now this cycle of 360 degrees can be divided into percentages, which we can relate back to Gann's key percentages, of say 50% or 100%.

If you study Chart 1 closely, you will see where I have used the Gann Emblem Tool to measure the distance from previous significant intermediate turns to November 2004. You will notice that we can see time frames relating to 360 degrees, 270 degrees, 180 degrees, 120 degrees and 90 degrees, all pointing toward time pressure in around early/mid November 2004. This is the kind of harmony that supports the identification of a top in the market. Additional support needs to come from Time Frame, Squares and Squaring Time and Price, but this set-up looks like potential dynamite. If the Dow plays out the move indicated last week and this rally is just a final dead cat bounce before a significant downturn then all is in order. Bring on the weeks ahead and bring on November.

Until next week......

Noel Campbell