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They say the odds of winning the jackpot on a pokie machine (slot machine for US readers) is about one in ten million. So low are the odds that you are nearly seven times more likely to be hit by lightening, and yet roughly a third of adult Australians have played them over the past year.

I last wrote about CBA:ASX looking at another 50% retracement in price and 50% in time lining up with a Time by Degrees date. We see from Chart 1 that this lined up with an almost 100% repeat of the previous range up and there was also price resistance around this point from the ATH Highs Resistance Card and the 2009 low Lows Resistance card. The combination of all these price pressure points form a price cluster which had us expecting a turn in the market. Trading this run short, however, required use of some of our advanced entry methods.

Elliott Wave, along with Gann analysis occupies a relatively unique position compared to other forms of analysis. Based upon price action and reaction (upward and downward movements) and the time it takes for those price movements to occur, both Gann’s and Elliott’s theories attempt to pick future turning points in the markets. Of course, there are many other elements of analysis, both technical and fundamental which can support those predictions and it is the application of these supporting arguments that is often the difference between successful and unsuccessful traders.

I have been watching with some indifference TLS over the last few years, having once been a not insignificant shareholder; taking decent size parcels in all three tranches, but cutting loose not long after. Despite all the upbeat chat at the time of privatising I have always believed they not only would suffer for many years from being a government department despite being so called ‘privatised’ but also that they would always be a political football with too many masters. And the most telling disadvantage was they were a ‘dead in the wall’ organisation with sunset technology in a sunset space. And because of the political issues it could not move fast enough to move to sunrise strategies.