Articles By: Tom Scollon - Safety In The Market

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Editor: Is This One Big Binge?

5 Jan, 2004

My wife remarked to me at a New Years Eve party that there is a lot of optimism in the air. That's not hard to find at this time of the year, but she is right, people are and have been much more optimistic of recent weeks.

Editor: Ignore The Headlines

22 Dec, 2003

I suspect from some of the feedback we receive that many readers are still torn between media hype and the underlying reality. This is a real issue particularly when you start off trading, but if it is any consolation, even experienced traders are at a quandary at times as to what to believe.

Editor: Interest Rates To Fall

15 Dec, 2003

Well it almost seemed that the hot headline of interest rates would disappear from the daily press. But like it or not the theme is going to be much debated in the coming months.

Editor: Choose a Bubble

1 Dec, 2003

Our market was again US driven last week. The Australian bourse spiked on Tuesday in reaction to the positive response by US investors to the 8.2% GDP growth in the September quarter. Without taking anything away from the US markets, what is more important is what future level of GDP growth can be sustained? The 3rd quarter growth was largely from increased consumer spending part of which came from a tax cut but also some came from an increase in “fantastic plastic” credit which adds to the lurking “indebtedness” bubble.

Editor: Did I See You Heading For The Exits?

24 Nov, 2003

Some may think I am obsessed with retracements. But I must persist as it is primary to understanding price movement. Just as markets retrace down when a market rises they also retrace up when the market is falling – this is part of the confusion and uncertainty as the tide changes.

Editor: Enter Confusing Times

17 Nov, 2003

What a dream run the markets have had over recent months - but unfortunately for the time being the easy paper profits are over. At the top of each market rally, confusion sets in - mixed feelings creep in to the market''''''''s psyche and equity sectors react in varying ways to the news around them.

Why The Surprise?

10 Nov, 2003

The predictable 0.25% interest rate creep announced last Wednesday hit a number of sectors, notably the Banks, Retail, Building Materials and Infrastructure. The sulking response was surprising given that the expectations were so overwhelming for an increase – the only surprise was maybe that it was a month early.

Editor: Value Is There - Just Hard To Find

3 Nov, 2003

The markets moved higher – “move” being something of a slightly dull term. The markets showed that maybe from here it is going to be something of a crawl to the top wherever that might be, but increasingly the experts are saying that is not far away. Who knows? Although the number of pundits who claim the market is overvalued is now gaining in number. And this is confirmed technically as many markets start off the day with energy only to fade as the day closes – a sure sign of caution and indecision.

Looking for Value Offshore

3 Nov, 2003

The Nikkei 225, the Japanese stock market key index, has risen almost 40% since its low of 2003 compared with the Australian market which has risen over 20% - a somewhat more cautious increase. The Nikkei started its run up over a month later - in April when it sat at its all time low of 7670 – compared to a high of almost 40,000 in the late 80’s!

Editor: Christmas Is Not Yet Here

27 Oct, 2003

For a while there it looked like “all our Christmases had come at once” with many thinking making money this way is just too easy. Apart from the fact I have laboured the point about retracements over the last several weeks there is in fact seasonality to retracements in many markets.

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